Coffee Unfiltered

26 May 2026— Coffee Origins, News

Coffee prices have been making headlines over the past couple of years, but the story runs deeper than the numbers.

Over the past eighteen months, prices have reached levels not seen in decades, and volatility has become a defining feature of the market. As we move further into the year, the conversation has evolved slightly, but the underlying pressures on coffee pricing remain.

There are reasons for cautious optimism looking ahead. At the same time, the past eighteen months have reshaped the cost base of coffee in ways that take time to settle.

The coffee market today

Over the last year or two, the coffee market has been particularly volatile. In late 2024, the C price hit an all-time high of 344c/lb, breaking a record that had stood for nearly 50 years. But then in February 2025, the market hit a new all-time high above 440c/lb, a number that many in the industry thought was completely out of reach. This new height could be attributed to several pressures, most significantly back-to-back global deficits and coinciding drought conditions in both Brazil and Vietnam, the two largest coffee-producing origins in the world.

As recently as November 2025, the C price was above 412c/lb, and we entered 2026 in the high 350’s^[1]. Since early February, the C price has bounced around in a range between 280-320c/lb, despite good outlooks shaping up for the Brazil 2026 harvest.

While the peaks of 2024-2025 have since eased, they highlight the scale of cost pressure the industry has been navigating. For many businesses, recent price adjustments have been part of responding to a sustained shift rather than a short-term spike.

Why prices are still elevated: beyond the C Market

Even when the C Price softens, it represents only one part of the overall picture. Across the supply chain(both at origin and closer to home), many costs remain elevated or unpredictable:

Labour and statutory costs, including wages, taxes, and local compliance requirements.
Energy, fuel, and insurance are heavily influenced by global supply and geopolitical conditions.
Freight and logistics costs, which eased earlier in 2025 before rising again toward the end of the year.
Domestic distribution costs, which remain higher than historical norms, largely driven by fuel price increases in recent months.
Café operating inputs such as dairy, food, packaging, and consumables driven by general inflation.^[2]

What’s happening at origin

On the supply side, the market continues to recover from several challenging seasons.

Global supply deficits in 2021/22 and 2022/23, driven by frost, drought, and flooding in various origins.
A modest surplus in 2023/24, which only partially offset earlier shortfalls.
2024/25 was broadly balanced with neither a significant deficit nor surplus.
2026 has been challenging to start, with excessive rains in Colombia(the world’s second-largest Arabica producer) putting pressure on their early-season harvest numbers and delaying the start of the harvest.

In good news for global stocks, the upcoming 2026 Brazil harvest is promising to be quite large, with some trading houses forecasting around 70 million bags^[3]. Time will tell once the harvest is properly underway.

One indicator often referenced is certified warehouse stock levels. Recent reports suggest these are sitting around 500 thousand bags^[4]; levels closer to 1–2 million bags are considered more comfortable, so low inventory numbers mean the market remains tight and on edge.

At farm level, producers continue to navigate rising input costs such as fertiliser, labour, and transport, alongside increasing climate variability. After extended periods of low prices in previous years, some producers are only now in a position to reinvest in their farms, whether that’s in soil health, tree renewal, equipment, or working conditions. These investments are essential for long-term supply, but they take time to translate into increased production.

Looking ahead

There are encouraging signs on the horizon. On the field reports show that Brazil’s 2026 harvest^[5] will be strong, alongside positive outlooks from origins such as Ethiopia and Honduras. If conditions remain favourable, this may help ease some of the current supply tightness over time.

That said, the market remains sensitive to a range of factors, including:

Weather events
Shipping and logistics disruptions
Fuel costs
Broader geopolitical uncertainty

As a result, periods of volatility are still likely and unfortunately, are only becoming more common.

What this can mean for cafés

Hospitality continues to operate in a competitive and fast-moving environment, where managing costs is a constant balance.
Across different markets, we’re seeing a few consistent themes emerge:

Customers are generally more aware of broader cost pressures than they have been in the past.
Clear and confident communication can help provide context when changes are made.
Quality, consistency, and experience remain central to customers’ decision making.

Each business will approach pricing and cost management in its own way, depending on its model, customers, and local conditions. What remains consistent is the importance of making considered decisions that support long-term sustainability.

Moving forward together

Coffee has always moved in cycles. While the past few years have been unusual in both scale and duration, they are part of a longer-term pattern of change. We believe in open conversations, thoughtful decision-making, and long-term partnerships that support a healthy and sustainable coffee industry for everyone involved.